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WARNING: November Races May Not Be As Close As They Appear
Thu Sep 28 2006 08:00:56 ET
Democratic pollsters are pushing lots of polls that show second- and third-tier candidates performing surprisingly well. If most of these challengers win, the Democrats will gain 30 or 40 House seats.
Obviously, that?s unlikely. Extremely unlikely, writes Stuart Rothenberg in fresh editions of ROLL CALL.
Rothenberg: "Count me as skeptical, and not only because most of these poll memos contain the dreaded ?and when voters were read short descriptions about the candidates? second ballot that allegedly measures a challenger?s fundamental strength. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride..."
"Well, I?ve seen that message, in one way or another, in almost every Democratic polling memo that comes across my desk. They almost always cite Bush?s standing. They almost all argue that voters want change or are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
"And they are right, but only so far."
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